Hi Trader friends,
[Prefer to watch a clip of this Blog Post, drop to the bottom of the post]
I believe AUD/NZD is eyeing a parity break, in what will be a firm spell of AUD weakness.
I teach the 3+1 Time frame view approach, also with ‘Intramarket Analysis’ , ie AUD against other pairs.
The 3 time frames are Trend, Pattern & Trigger time frame, where ever there are set ups + The
Super Macro – Provides clarity when pairs are at extreme highs or lows against each other indicated by the yellow bands, also captures major ebb & flows.
Note the rising wedge bull run for the Ozzie to 2011 in a rising wedge Miner commodity bull run on the ‘China’ factor, see how it just runs the prior high then the trend dies and there is a down break on the rising wedge.
Trend View [Weekly]
I remember the AUD/NZD 1st INV HVF in a new trend [numbered 1/2/3] trade, in a down move well, it out lasted me and I failed to extract what I should have. In hindsight, I believe this was already showing the weakness in China well ahead of when it was know to us all, compare the downturn to when Copper turned bear and you’ll understand what I mean [Copper is the key industrial Building metal].
Copper for fun.. Note the peak and slam down during 2011, signifying exhaustion and beginning of reversal.
Weekly AUDCAD Again, Highlighting 2011 again, with Oil also below it.
Here is why I believe we are eyeing the parity and a run through to 0.9328, we have another flat bottomed Inverted Hunt Volatility Funnel [Inv HVF]. a wind up is always required to break a key support level, remember the previous low supported on 1.0022. Proving the obvious that prity is a Key Level of Significance [KLoS].
Through the microscope, how the timing details have played so far, and how it may break as a scenario.
Oil has been spanked as we all know we called the short from $103, this has been lethal for the CAD.
Oil Call here Brent short from $103 here for those not seen this chart, Target was $77 with expected overperformance as a first set up in a new trend:
Back to AUDCAD…
However we find ourselves in a first Inv HVF on the AUDCAD, which means over performance as detailed in the original 2011 AUDNZD.
AUDCAD pre break H4
The Video clip
Would like to learn more about HVF Theory, contact Francis on Trader@TheMarketSniper.com