As Hunt Volatility Funnel Traders, one of our many mantra’s is:
Keep on keeping on..
In short we align ourselves with the macro trend, and trade only in this direction until the primary move has clearly reversed.
Here are some snippets on Oil & The EURUSD from recent media and broker outlets.
Saxo’s prediction for oil, a return to $100/B
Bloombergs latest Discussion on Oil
Suggesting a bottom?
So Saxo & Bloomberg both on the Oil Bottom, suggestive narrative.
It’s a nine o’clock call, repeat for a 12 hour period often enough and at 1 point eventually you will be right.
Long run we too believe any excessive overreaction in one direction will lead to an extreme response in the other direction at some point, but attempting to pin that tail on that donkey will make a mule out of most of us.
But that’s not the structure of a winning trading strategy. Even if it be true that current price levels are below economic levels long run.
Further ‘new ‘Bulls’ below.
FT suggestions of a mega Spike, helps create reversal hype
3 days up! ..err… Wow!
After 11 months in a row down.. and only 4 months in 22 not lower than the previous?
My Chart says ‘premature to the extreme’ …
A better example of remembering the facts below..
In fact HVF Theory suggest we would get a rally [Targets are designed to get you out after the impulsive move for a high ‘line of efficiency’, aka..the steepness of the descent or ascent from entry to exit, ie. maximum gain with minimum time on risk.], as we often, do after a key Inverted HVF set up makes it Target as we called on this chart below.
We have a name for this, it is called ‘Progress Decay’… the passing of time with little/no or even losses to that gained after a target is met. Basically any form of Price Action that spoils the ‘Line of efficiency’s’ Gradient.
Here was that Inv HVF’s performance call & target attainment, which now see’ a flood of ‘bottom callers’ on the news feeds.
In fact an Inverted HVF set up making target, is inherently medium/long term bearish, after a degree of rally & progress decay, we generally observe and await further downside continuation set ups.
Below our 2016 Trends stated shortly, new lows for oil & forecast the HVF Target of $36.82
See anything representing a Bottom on the On Balance Volume [OBV]..? Nope neither did I new trends have high volume confirmation.
In Carl Sagan’s book ‘a small pale blue dot’ looking back at earth from the voyager probe.. I would suggest the proportionality of Earth to the Galaxy is similar, to the new bullish fervour.. this time with Fibonacci grid.. On balance of probabilities i’d say our assumed low isn’t the low.. but I don’t pretend to know.
I just trade Trend, The Squeeze and high probabilities.. and expect to lose a few in the process.
Watch for similar Bullish zeal on the EURUSD from some of the same suspects..
Here is Saxo Bank.. ‘EURUSD to become 1.2300’ … just because it didn’t run parity when everyone wanted it too? Hmmm..
Here is your Small Pale Blue dot for the EURUSD.
And this is our current Target of 0.9628 for the EURUSD on an INV HVF. Dont get caught calling bottoms in our view.
Would you like another free trade?
Of course its the festive season of good will.
USDPLN [Polish Zloty]
Await a sell off till 3.7531 for a buy limit. S/L = 3.6541 , Target 4.6579 = 9047 pips for 990 pip risk = RRR 9.9+
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