Welcome to part 2.
I am going to focus on some charts for Barclays Bank, other British Banks & Deutsche Bank.
Lets start with Barclays, I have marked the Sub Prime Crash in most Macro charts, the post dotcom 2002-3 recession and any technical macro observations on the monthly chart.
This Macro Barclays Chart shows an Inverted HVF through zero. The Key Level of Significance [KLoS] to go was the 200p mark triggering the pattern since this move some few days later BARC traded 165p today.
Inverted Hunt Volatility Funnel Pattern View – Weekly Chart
Trigger Timeframe with a small wind up pattern, to the downside to lose the key level of significance [KLoS] round number of 250p.
Here is Lloyds Bank.. since this close it traded sub 60p previously traded 600p hanging on to its last 10% it seems despite bailouts.
Standard Chartered [STAN] was the Darling post ’08, they didn’t play Sub-Prime and were positioned by China for market growth.
We saw this set up and wondered if it was the begining of something.
After success with the above we saw this too.. below.. In fact Keep on keeping on shorting the set ups was and is the game.
This how these set ups panned out, Just Inv HVF trading that trend.
Here is the Macro chart on STAN, it has run the 500p previous support level since 1995, but for one quick dip after climbing above… this is an epic nose dive, with no respite.
STAN – Keep on keeping on and the economic recessions, Standard Chartered was different it over rallied post 2009, due to non-Subprime exposure… but its China exposure sure is biting now.
The Inv HVF patterns just set up new OBV lows, and trade lows, note the volume acceleration in OBV after the last pattern, we spiralling in. A grind line break was the initial begining and has just built momentum since.
Lets get ‘Continental’ to illustrate this isn’t just a British problem.
Outside of Commerze Bank In Germany. Deutsche was the dumbest money in the sub-Prime game, and ended up holding, the lions share of sliced & diced worthless CDO.. schmultz.
Before the Charts here is an image to digest… how much of a a move required on Euro 54 Trillion for a banks equity to be obliterated?
What percentage of GDP for Germany & the EU is it?
Below the video is the chart point where I called a triggering event take out on a volatility squeeze.. for DB, this was September last year.
There was a YouTube clip to go with it:
Breakdowns on a Macro Inv HVF with another negative Target! Monthly chart DB.
Shorter Timeframe to Weekly level shows the break more closely.
What the distribution volume of insiders bailing showed us in terms of direction, note OBV divergence.
September 2015 = 24.27
February 2016 = 14.74
Zero won’t take long at this rate? Of course interventions will occur before. How did the Germans get so mugged?
Its not just Deutsche’s Stock thats a concern.. check out there .. CoCo Bonds, yes that stands for Contingent Convertible Bonds… in short debt commitments are squeezing them too.
***** Update ***** 09.02.16
Here is the detail in the FT.
What does all this mean?
Simply put for me:
- There never was a Post dotcom & Subprime fix for the banks
- We are in a depression with systemic Bank failure at its centre, which was put on hold by exceptional accommodatory monetary policy & Quantitative Easing [QE], and re-inflation of certain assets, to create a wealth effect for the few with Asset heavy balance sheets
- This was done to save the Banks & 1%’s, not the average man in the street
- The Drugs don’t work anymore.. we are immune to the pain killers now
- Uncontrolled meltdown will now occur regardless of what has been done before, it has failed as it never addressed the original issue
- New financial structures will be proposed by many of the same elites from the dust & ashes of what’s coming, it should be resisted as it serves them not the people
- The FED will be blamed for its tightening, and a new world monetary authority with broad global reach will be proposed.
What should you do:
- Get heavily into cash notes
- Sell hard now, for full payment upfront
- Stretch supplier terms
- Avoid any major financial capital Investment
- Be lean on staff
- If you need to cut, cut brutally and early once
- Focus on most popular, profitable product lines, sell off marginal product lines now
- Spread any remaining bank holdings across the biggest and most stable banks, look into Singaporean, Uruguayan and other different legal jurisdiction zones
- Sell all equity, Bonds government or corporate debt
- Sell the major US indices short, and forget the trade for 3 years, don’t tinker
- Size down business or any rental space based overhead including personal
- Explore working from home options at least partly if not entirely
- Get locally plugged in for supplies of most things
- Read Prepper books, in case of extremity events
- Have simple back up comms to the mobile network like CB Radio.
- In case of war just get to the Southern Hemisphere in a neutral or uninvolved state
- Expect the public to carry the can for the failed banking system again as proven before
- Expect confusing main stream media flow
- Expect an escalation in alleged ‘terrorist’ attacks, leading to a higher degree of paramilitiriased policing in public places, on the basis of ‘your safety’, as opposed to citizen or push back against the system suppression
- Treat all proposed solutions of after a period of fear/death/anarchy as preplanned and against your best wishes
- Try be as independent of any grid supply, whether it be telecoms, electricity, gas, mobile comms, sanitation etc.
‘If this was interesting to you, you could be ready for a deep seated ‘shift’ in your trading, something that has the power to take you away from reliance on others and provides a flexible and free lifestyle’
You maybe ready for the Trading Metamorphosis Program more details here on the link below and email me on Trader@TheMarketSniper.com we have just a few Early Bird options with additional primer materials and precourse time in the Incubator ‘Newbie’ rooms.
Wishing you a prosperous Trading 2016