The great, 2008 recovery powering force, was meant to be that of China.

 

Turning its Rural Community into, urbanised economically active dwellers 500 million at a time.

Even if this was possible, it would be a bumpy transition, with many an overshoot, and Mal-Investment.

 

So when did China truly start slowing?

A large part of the China ‘miracle’ would be the insatiable appetite for commodities especially for building, homes, commercial office & infrastructure.

 

Part 1 – Copper bottom.

One of the most critical construction industrial metals is Copper.

DEFINITION of ‘Doctor Copper’

Market lingo for the base metal that is reputed to have a Ph.D. in economics because of its ability to predict turning points in the global economy. Because of copper’s widespread applications in most sectors of the economy – from homes and factories, to electronics and power generation and transmission – demand for copper is often viewed as a reliable leading indicator of economic health. This demand is reflected in the market price of copper. Generally, rising copper prices suggest strong copper demand and hence a growing global economy, while declining copper prices may indicate sluggish demand and an imminent economic slowdown.

Read more: Doctor Copper Definition | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doctor-copper.asp#ixzz40G59POIq
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So on this chart, Post 2008 new Copper Highs when did we tip?

The long bleed South

The long bleed South

 

Ans: 2011 [2nd Red shaded area, after 2nd Yellow warning area]

Since Subprime the chart looked like this…

The Copper tip.. an exhaustive high just through the Key Level of Significance [KLoS] of 450

 

The first of the downturns not copper bottomed.

The first of the downturns not copper bottomed.

 

Dr Copper says…

 

Interestingly apart from High Grade Copper, Our:

  1. Oil south break call at $103,
  2. and the FX pair AUD/NZD,

All also turned south in 2011 … In short 2011 was our silent unknown 2007…

Did you know that?

Have a peek here

Oil Weekly

Oil pivital Year 2011

Oil Key Year 2011

AUD/NZD Weekly Chart.

When did the reliant on mined commodity Currency start turning?

2016-02-14_22-24-26 trend view ann 2011 turn

Answer: The Key Reversal period was 2011, from March, with AUD spilling early 2012 [across other FX pairs too]

From these charts we appear to be since in an engineered attempt at a softer landing version of 2008, much like Copper.

In Short China & The Commodity market have been in an extended deflation bleed south, that risks now going into a ‘Dis-orderly’ descent.

 

Don't believe the Glut's of supply in every realm.. maybe its the Demand side thats gone.

Don’t believe the ‘Glut’s of Supply’ explanation in every realm.. maybe its the Demand side that has gone?

 

A Supply Glut, a Glut Everywhere a Glut but nothing wrong with demand and not a depression you hear !?