We were expecting continuation for a downside break on GBP across a number of pairs, especially GBPUSD & GBPJPY.

We had an Inverted HVF [Hunt Volatility Funnel] in an advanced stage.

Here were our scenariocasts on these pairs including some from private clients on basecamp:

A GBPJPY Scenariocast from September



A GBPUSD progression from an earlier scenario, pre-flashcrash.




The Flash Crash through Target GBPUSD



A graduates draw from premium Basecamp on the GBPUSD:




Subsequent Progress ==>


2016-10-06_21-13-38 2016-10-06_21-14-06


Melt Down Through Target!


2016-10-07_00-26-44 2016-10-07_11-09-20


Fundmanetally these were the ‘reasons’. [But how were we positioned before, if these were true?]



How Ironic, at thinnest trade time of months and geographic session:

GBP collapsed around the Asian open, with trades apparently going through below 1.15 in GBP/USD.

GBP/EUR almost hit parity at one stage with analysts saying it appears algorithmic trades are to blame.

The move happened right at the point of thinnest liquidity and on a day (US payrolls Friday) when volumes would have been unusually thin anyway.


Also don’t forget to blame the French


“Ostensibly triggered by harsh comments on UK exit terms from French PM Hollande, GBP collapsed around the Asian open, with trades apparently going through below 1.15


Another of many examples, of having ‘The News Before, The News’ at least at the trade level.

We will leave the others to fight about the reasons and the Psychologists to calculate if HVF Theory harnesses the wisdom of the crowd!


The video Summary:

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Wishing you every success with your trading journey.

Warm Wishes

Francis Hunt