1. Deutsche Bank’s failure to recover beyond a dead cat bounce post 2008, belies ‘ a never was fixed’ narrative
2. Macro Weekly Inv HVF technical set up that has already triggered, with Target through Nought see below charts
3. H4 Inv HVF winding up at the level of the first Interim Level 1, with a Target to Interim level 2
4. Fundamentally: Continual losses unchecked, below even most pessimistic expectations
5. Unheralded Derivatives positions totally 75 Trillion..5x entire EU GDP and 20x, excessissive leverage to capital base.
Bonus Reason: Was the Dumb money in last subprime crisis with US Investment banks unloading their toxic CDO positions to DB near the end. Never seemed to understand what they bought, and unlikely to have identified the full level of their exposure to small moves in the market.
Finally read this FT quote:
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In discussions with colleagues, he has expressed alarm about the “Horlicks”, or total mess, the bank has made of its technology by allowing individual teams and traders to operate on their own incompatible platforms.
By operating a deliberate strategy of pitting teams against each other, in an attempt to spur them on, the bank has found itself riddled with different systems — all of which must be reconciled, often by hand, before trades can be processed and recorded.
His emphasis reflects the challenge confronting many big banks as they scramble to modernise IT systems, in the face of mounting pressure from regulators, digital challengers and cyber criminals.
Macro Deutsche Bank Chart Weekly
H4 Deutsche Bank Chart
The fallout will dwarf Lehmans, in the event it cresecendo’s to a collapse, for this reason, I believe it will rather be nationalised and bailed out on a continous drip drip basis and not allowed to go in one go, as it will pull too much down with it.
It will become the new AIG, held up as a skeleton of its former self more for those parties who would be adversely affected if it died suddenly. A toxic zombie bank requiring extensive QE & subsidy to meet its commitments to the like of Goldman and others who must always be made ‘whole’.