Hi Guys,

I have the impression that 2016 will be the begining of the next epic downturn.

This time a full reset may occur.

Here are my charts on where we are at.

On the Monthly scale we are in a Bull run that has had 11years up and 5 years down.

Note the later years have been like a falling wedge which has broken to the upside, as is typical. A revist dip remains a possibility, but I believe the hard selling off for this metal is over.

2016-03-15_23-44-56

 

Also note how when the XAU/XAG ratio gets above 80 its a warning of big problems.

This means Gold climbing in value relative to silver to an extreme, is a bad sign and is usually followed with strength from Silver and alk precious metals, but Silver to a much hihgher beta, between 2.5x – 3x’s Golds move. The reduction of this mutiple down also supports a more broad bull market for all precious metals.

 

Big money moves early when a crisis is looming and XAU will carry more money for less weight & storage.

 

2016-03-15_23-58-54

 

Consider how rotating into Gold every time the XAU/XAG made 45, and then back into Silver every time through 80.

 

 

Here is UK Housing relative to Gold, note how they are inversely correlated, the blue chart is the Gold price in $’s [USD Dollar been long run strong over the last years or so].

 

The red chart shows where housing got out of kilter to metals as an advance warning to the 2008 downturn with the red chart topping out in 2004/5.

 

At this juncture Gold was climbing faster than housing, one was gaining momentum for its 2011 top whilst the other was slowing = Inverse correlation.

2016-03-15_23-22-47 Gold & UK House prices

 

In Silver we have a long dip to come if legacy valuations are revisted and the liquidity days are tightened.

 

2016-03-15_22-55-43 Chart XAG vs UK House Prices

 

Here are the slide links

 

And the Vimeo video.

https://vimeo.com/159151330

 

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