Hi,

Looking at LONG TERM CABLE..

Weak Pound to 'strong' $

Zoomed in, Note how we have now made a 50% retracement from the RH2 point and are now getting some basing price behaviour with hammers etc..

This will be an acceptable RL2 level for a complete Inv HVF..

chart below.

RL3 in at 50% fib ?

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Hi,

An amazing 27% of Mortgaged Housing stock is now under water.

What this means is that the US will continue to try save their banking system..which implies $ devaluation in the long run.. to reduce ‘real value’ of Housing and treasury indebtedness.

This is why I am reluctant to trade Current $ strength, without very clear patterns and defined targets. Although in the case of the Rand, ZAR maybe weaker still given an extended period of stability yet with higher inflation….

here is a short commentary from EWI.. on US Housing below :-

According to the most recent quarterly real estate market survey from Zillow.com, the percentage of U.S. homes UNDERWATER — i.e., those whose market values are below what’s owed on them — soared from 20% in August 2010 to 27% today. On top of that, home prices continue to decline while foreclosure rates rose to a new, all-time record high. (February 10, 2011 Associated Press)
“The US housing market is dying,” says Business Insider. “As statistic after statistic continues to roll in, the reality of what is happening is becoming very difficult to deny.”
Also increasingly difficult to deny is the fact that so many mainstream observers and officials were as blindsided by the housing collapse as your average homeowner. It’s time to “short” the economists, suggested one business blogger recently: “The vast majority of these same ‘experts’ completely missed the $8 Trillion housing bubble in the United States.” (Truthdig)

Regards
TMS

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Cable stall but trend is up Med Term

Cable been strong for a bit.. time for a breath?

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Hi,

Has Cables pop about to run its course.

A stall awaits certainly Short term?

Cable to stall back soon?

Illustrated although a small overrun on target likely before weakness.

Stall..?

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Hi,

Usual underwhelming to shocking UK Numbers, this time it is GDP -0.5% amazingly everyone expected +0.5% not me I am afraid.

People continually talk ‘recovery’ whilst having little concept of the severity and perilous state western markets & UK specifically are in.

9:30am GBP
Prelim GDP q/q

-0.5%
0.5%
0.7%

Here is the Inverted HVF which broke short below, dont chase south, a retracement likely as downside Target was made. Glad some clients are in the money following my South Calls for Cable.

Inv HVF Target Met

A massive downside pattern awaits on take ou of 1.5265 some way still.

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GBPUSD Something is brewing here and not necessarily Up there is certainly going to be a move tomorrow or before..

Inverted HVF? Right Shoulder?

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Hi,

Since posting my Inverted Hunt Volatility Funnel on Cable it continues to fall.

I have added to short positions.

My primary trade (s) is Short at take out 1.5528 and today at market 153.98.

Loss stop 1.5646 (Long Stop 1.5911)

Target 1.2175

Yes you read right… big call I know..it will not be overnight.

await slight bounce before rushing in if considering a short.

Merry Christmas
TMS

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