| The ADP number is a sample of, and a proxy for, the Nonfarm payrolls number (NFP) that will be released on our Live Trading Day on Friday, and it came in below expectations. It is a sample of companies that use one of the biggest payroll payslip provider companies, and that sample of employees added is usually a good guide for how the Nonfarm payroll number will come in.It is possibly pointing to a weak NFP number. This economically could lead to the expectation that the Fed can no longer afford to be hawkish on inflation, on account of the labour market now showing signs of slowing down.In the possible scenario of the NFP number coming in below expectations, we may expect some softening in the USDJPY and some scope for the Euro to get a short term rally.USD/JPY 1D: Scenario-cast if NFP is below expectation |
| In this instance, stocks may get a bid and Bitcoin could also rally to the upside. If Bitcoin were to get between the 22 to 24K range this will provide the next possible set up for shorting Bitcoin and crypto.BTCUSD 1D: Scenario-cast if NFP is below expectation in blue. If not, then red |
| Regardless of the NFP number outcome tomorrow, even if weak, I still expect in two of three weeks time for the Fed to continue to be hawkish and for this to result in another slamming selloff. If the NFP number is soft interest rates are also likely ease and bonds will get a bid and all the buy-bonds-wear-diamonds guys will be back out in full force.Don’t be fooled!It is our view that they are trading rallies in a bear markets, and as a result, we will stand back from the market. We’ll be looking to add additional shorts at key levels, and the one trade I reiterate of interest is Bitcoin tapping out somewhere between the 22 and 24K level. This will be a great shorting point for us, in our opinion. So, let’s see if we are correct. Will the Nonfarm number disappoint on our Live Trading Day? |
| This could prove very exciting trigger for some big moves! Come and attend our Live Trading Day, Friday 2 September 2022, for two informative and entertaining sessions as we deep dive the traditional and crypto markets.Grow and defend your wealth during these Reset Times! |
| Join our Live Trading Day, this Friday to see how the HVF Method can work for you. Our Live Trading Day consists of one traditional markets session (90 minutes) where we will analyse the incoming Non Farm Payroll numbers and one Crypto Markets session (90 minutes) where we will analyse the next Bitcoin movement and the current state of Altcoins.This Friday at 11:30 – 15:00 UTC+0All attendees will receive a recording of the eventClick here to reserve your spot: |
Warm wishes, Francis & The Market Sniper Team |