Ten years ago, on September the 2nd 2009, I made the prediction on a public forum that gold will experience a major bull run, after crossing the key level of significance of $962.
The bull run went on until July of 2011 where gold massively over-performed and reached over $1900.
Gold – USD Weekly – 2009 September the 2nd
This day 10 years ago is highlighted below in red at the $962.
Then came the first major ‘slap in the face’ warning, and you had this flat bottom structure (descending triangle – Red Line base).
Usually, after over-performance occurs you then get a sustained period of underperformance like we saw in the period between 2013 – 2016.
Gold – USD Daily – Post Blow off High of July 2011
We actually traded short, as highlighted below, whilst investment accumulating, on a monthly averaging basis into the bear market, for the long run. Peculiar feeling for many, till you are experienced as sometimes you won’t know what to wish for. Both can win.
Gold USD – Daily Falling Wedge Into China Debt Bust Lows
The 2013 – 2016 period was a terrible time for bulls, with the likes of Peter Schiff & Mike Maloney making many ‘False Dawn’ Bull Calls. In my opinion this diminished their credibility for when they would eventually become accurate.
During this period despite being long term investor ‘longs’, we re-iterated that technically it was not a leveraged long trade ‘yet’, but to prepare therefore.
China’s eventual ‘Debt Crash’ as buyer of last resort of commodities from 2009 – 2015, resulted in the early 2016, Gold final low at $1074, still above our ‘Not to be seen again $962’.
In 2017 on iGoldAdvisor’s, I answer the question on ‘Entries Matter’ for leveraged trading and key Investment lump sums, using Technical Analysis.
Here is a link to that video: iGold Advisor – How To Technically Trade & Invest in Gold
Now we are here, 10 years later, again on a Monday as I write this, ironically. I predict that Gold is now in a major bull run. Although this time it didn’t wait for September to happen. September is a Northern Hemisphere return to desks moment after the Summer Holidays, markets take direction. As Hunt Volatility Funnel Traders we have significantly higher targets on most fiat currencies against Gold, I am talking of the XAUEUR, XAUGBP, & XAU vs Emerging FX and of course against the Dollar Too.
It will be bigger move than the last time, because of the current financial reset debt levels & the likely QE ‘cures’ that will follow.
We are more globally synchronized in potential debt failure, Australia, NZ & China have joined the debt zombies of Europe & The Sub-Prime Car Loans, Student Debt & Echo-Property re-inflate of the US.
We could see levels of $3,000+ and not see levels of below $1,350 ever again. Just like with HVF Method we predicted, that we will never see levels below $962 again.
Silver, which is a higher beta Gold, is also in a bull run and will perform even better. This could lead to a flip of the Silver/Gold ratio from its 93.5 Ratio high back down to 30 of the Subprime lows and even beyond!
Gold/Silver – XAUXAG – Weekly
This means if Gold doubled from here, Silver may go up 2.5x or even 3x more than Gold, namely 5x – 6X. Silvers last high in 2011 was just under $50. In these circumstances of Gold doubling, it would mean Silver running to $90 – $108 an oz, from its current $18’s levels. The Ratio is breaking down out of a rising wedge as we write to you, signaling a bull market for both, with Silver to over-perform!
Not bad for miners either, although with many high in debt they may lag initially before catch up.
If you think you missed the Gold & Precious Metals bull run, I would say you only missed 50-60% of the first chapter of a super macro bull run. It could go a lot further, it could go to $2,000 or potentially $3,000 and well beyond. In fact Platinum has lagged, miners have lagged, & Silver has just got out of bed and has just slipped its running shoes on.
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Thank you for your interest! I hope this post was helpful to you!
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